When labour data outweighs the inflation print for sterling
Employment and wage releases can dominate the sterling path even in an inflation-heavy month.
Inflation prints draw the headlines; wage and employment figures sometimes rewrite the sterling week. When average weekly earnings surprise while CPI lands near consensus, FX desks often reprice the policy path more aggressively than gilt screens alone would suggest.
In impact reviews that include a sterling sleeve, we therefore ask whether labour data sits inside or outside the commissioned indicator set. Leaving it outside is fine — as long as the memorandum states that assumption. Leaving it unmentioned is how committees end up surprised by a currency move they thought was “about CPI.”
Map the month’s labour releases beside the inflation calendar before you decide which single print deserves the flagship fee.